Global Oil Markets React as Blockade Liftoff Nears
Following President Trump’s announcement that a deal is close, global oil markets experienced an immediate reprieve, with crude prices dropping by $4 per barrel. Under the terms of the 60-day interim agreement, the U.S. will immediately lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and grant waivers for Iranian crude to be shipped abroad. In exchange, Iran has committed to clear naval mines and technical obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to return merchant shipping traffic to pre-war volumes within 30 days. Analysts warn, however, that it will take several months for the global energy supply chain to fully stabilize.
Pezeshkian and Trump Tipped for Historic Joint Signing
In a major diplomatic shift, the Iranian Foreign Ministry suggested that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian could personally join President Trump to sign the accord in Switzerland. If a joint presidential signing ceremony takes place, it would mark the most significant formal diplomatic encounter between the two nations since relations were severed in 1980 during the Tehran embassy hostage crisis. While previous updates slated the signing for Friday in Geneva, Trump indicated at the G7 summit that the timeline has been accelerated, stating a deal could be finalized as early as Thursday.
Destruction of Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile Mandated
Senior U.S. administration officials confirmed that a cornerstone of the agreement requires the total destruction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile. Under the supervision of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran’s estimated 440kg stockpile will be “down-blended”—or diluted—directly on Iranian soil to ensure it cannot be weaponized. While Iran has agreed to a temporary moratorium on enrichment during the 60-day ceasefire window, a permanent timeline remains a massive hurdle; Washington is pushing for a 20-year ban, while Tehran refuses to exceed 10 years.
Ceasefire Scope Includes Lebanon Despite Israeli Friction
A primary pillar of the MoU dictates an immediate, permanent cessation of military hostilities on all fronts, explicitly extending to Lebanon. This provision requires Iran to actively rein in Hezbollah. However, the inclusion of Lebanon has triggered severe friction with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly notified the Trump administration that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon-related clauses and will not withdraw troops from its newly established “buffer zone” in southern Lebanon, reserving the right to strike back if targeted by proxies.
Frozen Asset Release Tied to Verification Milestones
While Iranian state media has claimed the victory of securing access to billions of dollars in frozen international assets—with early drafts estimating up to $25 billion—U.S. Vice President JD Vance clarified that no funds will move unconditionally. Washington has established a strict protocol linking financial relief to verified compliance. The U.S. will maintain its military posture in the region and freeze further asset releases until the IAEA certifies the destruction of the HEU stockpile and verifies that Iran has permanently ceased funding regional proxy forces.